Mitengo yechips yakaderedzwa, machipisi haatengeswe.Muhafu yekutanga ya2022, nekuda kwekushomeka kwekuda muzvemagetsi zvevatengimusika, iyo chip indasitiri yakambounza mukuderedza mutengo, uye muhafu yechipiri yegore, chirongwa chakazvidzokorora.
Munguva pfupi yapfuura, nhau dzeCCTV dzakashuma kuti sechinhu chakakosha cheiyo electronic control system,STMicroelectronicsmachipisi aimbove chimwe chezvakanyanya kutsvakwa-mushure mezvigadzirwa zvechip muna 2021, uye mutengo wemusika wakambokwira kusvika pamakumi matatu nemazana mashanu yuan, asi muna 2022, chipu chimwe chete chakadonha kubva pakakwirira kusvika pamakumi matanhatu yuan, kudonha kusvika pamakumi masere%.
Sezvineiwo, mutengo weimwe chip gore rapfuura wakasiyana zvakapetwa kagumi kubva gore rino.Mitengo yechip inofananidzwa nenguruve, kumusoro uye pasi, mutengo wepamusoro uye wekare wekare musiyano wemutengo wakawedzeredzwa, zvinonzi vezvenhau vakashuma 600 yuan yeSTMicroelectronics chips, mutengo wakajairwa muna 2020 ungori makumi mashoma emayuan.
Iyo chip craze inoita kunge yapfuura, igore rakasviba iro rakafukidza tekinoroji yese gore rapfuura rave kuda kusimuka?Sekureva kwaBloomberg, mazhinji emakambani echip anotenda kuti musika uyu unopisa uchange uine shanduko huru kwenguva yakareba mune ramangwana, uye kunyangwe vamwe vanhu vasina tariro kuti iyo semiconductor indasitiri ichaunza kuderera kwakanyanya mumakore gumi.
Mafaro mashoma, kusuruvara kushoma, chip mitengo avalanche, kuwedzera kune indasitiri yakanyarara, ndinotya kuti kune isingaverengeke misika mucarnival.
01Iyo chip yakadzika, asi kwete zvachose?
Iko kuwanda kwemitengo yemachip hakuparadzaniswe kubva kune husimbe hwekushandisa zvemagetsi pasi rose.
Kubva mushumo wezvemari weTSMC, zvinogona kuonekwa kuti bhizinesi re smartphone, iro raimbotsigira hafu yenyika, haisisiri iyo huru yekuwana mari, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti chikamu chebhizimisi iri chicharamba chichiderera.Sekureva kweCINNO Tsvagiridzo, China's smartphone SoC terminal kutumira muhafu yekutanga ya2022 yaive ingangoita 134 miriyoni, pasi ingangoita 16.9% gore-pa-gore.
Kana iri chikamu chePC, maererano nekambani yekutsvagisa musika yeMercury Research, muchikamu chechipiri chegore rino, kutumirwa kwekombuta yekombuta kwakadonha kusvika padanho rakaderera mumakore angangoita makumi matatu, kutumirwa kwese kwakasangana nekuderera kukuru kwegore negore kubvira 1984. , South Korea's smartphone sales yakawira 29.2% gore-pa-gore muna July, kombiyuta uye midziyo yekubatsira kunze kwenyika yakawira 21.9%, uye memory chip shipments yakatungamirira kuderera nekuderera kwe13.5%.
Kukwira kwemvura kunodzikira, maodha ezasi anoramba achidzikira, uye mitengo inotonhorera.
Nekudaro, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti aya machipi akadzikisa mitengo haaite chero basa mukuunza iyo yese semiconductor indasitiri.Machipisi adzikira mumutengo here?Pasi penhau dze "plummeting", kuchine vagadziri vakazivisa kuwedzera kwemitengo kunopesana nemaitiro, akadai seIntel, Qualcomm, Meiman Electronics, Broadcom, nezvimwewo kuronga kukwidza mutengo wezvimwe zvezvigadzirwa zvavo zvechip.
Tichitora Intel semuenzaniso, maererano naNikkei, Intel yakazivisa vatengi kuti ichawedzera mutengo wezvigadzirwa zve semiconductor muhafu yechipiri ye2022, uye inotarisirwa kuwedzera mutengo wezvakasiyana zvigadzirwa zvakaita semasevha epakati uye komputa CPU. processors uye peripheral chips, uye kuwedzera kunosiyana zvichienderana nerudzi rwechip, iyo yakaderera munhamba imwe chete, uye iyo yakanyanya kuwedzera inogona kusvika 10% kusvika 20%.
Mutengo wemachipisi wakwira here?Zvinogona kutaurwa kuti mutengo wevatengi vemagetsi machipisi wakangoerekana wadonha nekuda kwekuderera kwekuda, asi kudiwa kweMCU mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzekushandisa kunoramba kwakasimba, senge mota uye kutonga kwemaindasitiri, izvo zvakonzera kukwira kwemutengo we machipisi anoenderana.Kubva pakatanga kutakura nharembozha dzisina kujairika, ramangwana reiyo chip indasitiri yakanzi inonakidza kutengesa-inononoka, asi kutaura zvazviri, kushomeka kwechip mune mamwe maindasitiri hakuna kupera.
Kunyanya emota machipisi, 2022 China Nansha International Integrated Circuit Indasitiri Forum data inoratidza kuti ikozvino chip zvigadzirwa zvinongokwanisa kusangana neavhareji ye31% yezvinodiwa nevagadziri vemotokari, Xpeng Motors 'He Xiaopeng akatiwo iyo indasitiri yemotokari chip kushomeka hakuna kupera. , GAC munaJune yakapa data kuti GAC yakatarisana nekushomeka kwechip kusvika ku33,000 zvidimbu mukota yechipiri.
Iyo indasitiri yesimba nyowani yanga ichienda zvakanaka, uye kudiwa kwemachipisi mune ramangwana hakugone kushomeka.Zvinonzi avhareji mota inoda kushandisa mazana mashanu machipisi,motokari itsva dzine simbaane mamwe machipisi, gore rapfuura mota dzepasi rose dzinotengeswa dzinosvika 81.05 miriyoni mayunitsi, ndiko kuti, iyo yese indasitiri yemotokari cheni inoda 40.5 bhiriyoni machipisi.
Pamusoro pezvo, machipisi epamusoro-soro achiri akakwira paatari yemusika, kune rimwe divi, iyo yekumusoro indasitiri cheni yemachipisi ane advanced process technology haina kumbobvira yapera.Zvakambotaurwa kuti TSMC's 3nm chip ichaita kugadzirwa kwakawanda munaGunyana, uye Apple ichave mutengi wekutanga kushandisa TSMC's 3nm chip.
Zvinonzi Apple ichasanganisira itsva A17 processor gore rinouya, pamwe neM3 series processor, iyo inoshandisa TSMC's 3 nanometers.Kune rimwe divi, pane kushomeka kwepamusoro-process semiconductor zvishandiso, uye kubuda kwe3nm uye 2nm advanced process hakutariswe kuve kwakakwira, uye panogona kunge paine gap rekupa regumi% kusvika 20% muna 2024 ~ 2025.
Izvozvo zvinoita kuti zvive zvishoma zvishoma kuti mitengo inodonha.Zviratidzo zvese zvinotiudza kuti machipisi ari kudonha uye indasitiri iri kure nekureruka sezvazvinoratidzika.
02 Machipisi evatengi haasi kudiwa here?
Rimwe divi rakanyarara, rimwe divi harina kubudirira.
Vatengi zvemagetsi machipisi apfuura munguva yakanakisa yemakore maviri ekutanga, uye nekudzikira kwekushandiswa kwemagetsi, ivo vakapedzisira vadzika pasi peatari.Parizvino, makambani mazhinji echip akatanga kuve akabatikana achichinja bhizinesi ravo, kubva kune mutengi kuenda kune mota uye engineering minda.TSMC yakanyora musika wemotokari sechirongwa chakakosheswa mumakore mashoma anotevera, uye zvinonzi kudivi renyika, bhizinesi remotokari revatambi vepamba veMCU vakaita seGigaDevice Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, uye AMEC riri kuramba richiwedzera kuoneka. .
Kunyanya, GigaDevice yakapinda mutengi sampuli yekuyedza nhanho neyekutanga mota-giredhi MCU chigadzirwa munaKurume, uye inotarisirwa kuwana kugadzirwa kwakawanda gore rino;Zhongying Electronics inonyanya kushandiswa kumuviri wekutonga MCU chikamu, uye inotarisirwa kudzoka pakati pegore;AMEC Semiconductor yakaratidza kutsunga kwayo kugadzira machipisi emotokari mune yayo prospectus, uye yayo IPO inoronga kukwidza 729 miriyoni yuan, iyo 283 miriyoni yuan ichashandiswa kumota-giredhi chip tsvagiridzo uye mapurojekiti ebudiriro.
Mushure mezvose, chiyero chenzvimbo yemotokari dzemotokari dzepamba uye kutonga machipisi ishoma pane 1%, chiyero chenzvimbo yemasensa iri pasi pe4%, uye chiyero chenzvimbo yemagetsi semiconductors, ndangariro, uye kutaurirana i8%, 8%, uye 3% zvichiteerana.Kugadzirwa kwemotokari nyowani simba remumba kuri kutyisidzira, uye iyo yese yakangwara ecology inosanganisira kutyaira yakazvimiririra ichapedza nhamba yakakura yemasemiconductors mune inotevera nhanho.
Uye zvichave zvakaoma sei kuramba wakanamatira nevatengi machipisi?
Zvakambotaurwa kuti Samsung yakambomisa kutenga kwese mabhizinesi mayuniti, kusanganisira mapaneru, mbozhanhare uye ndangariro machipisi, uye kunyangwe vazhinji vekuKorea memory vagadziri vachatora danho rekudzikisa mitengo neinopfuura 5% mukutsinhana kwekutengesa.Nuvoton Technology, iyo inonyanya kushandisa zvemagetsi zvevatengi, yakaonawo purofiti yayo ichikwira kanopfuura ka5,5 gore rapfuura, iine purofiti yeNT $ 7.27 pachikamu.Kuita kwacho kwakave kwakadzikama muna Kubvumbi naChivabvu gore rino, nemari inodonha ne2.18% uye 3.04% zvakateerana mwedzi-pa-mwedzi.
Mumwe anogona kunge asingatsananguri chero chinhu, asi Wind data inoratidza kuti kubva muna Chivabvu 9, 126 makambani semiconductor pasi rese akazivisa mishumo yavo yezvemari kwekota yekutanga ye2022, iyo gumi nematanhatu vakawana kuderera kwegore negore mune net purofiti kana. kunyange kurasikirwa.Machipisi evatengi ari kusimudzira kudonha kwavo, uye mota nekutonga kwemaindasitiri zvave nzvimbo inotevera yekutsvaga purofiti mumusika wechip.
Asi zviri nyore chaizvo sezvazvinoratidzika here?
Kunyanya kune vamwe vanogadzira machipisi epamba, kutama kubva kumunda wemagetsi evatengi kuenda kumunda wemotokari kunopfuura kupisa kwemusika.Chekutanga, machipisi emumba anofanirwa kuve neakadzika, uye mutengi munda unotanga, uchiverengera 27%.Kunyangwe iwe ukatarisa pasirese, misika yemumba ndiyo zvakare yakakura semiconductor musika, data inoratidza kuti muna 2021, iyo Chinese mainland musika semiconductor kutengesa yakasvika 29.62 bhiriyoni US madhora, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe58%, ndiyo yenyika. musika mukuru we semiconductor, unoverengera 28.9% yepasirese semiconductor yekutengesa.
Kechipiri, iyo chip indasitiri pachayo ine yakakura purofiti margin mumafoni akangwara uye minda ine hukama ne5G.Semuenzaniso, TSMC kutumira kune makumi manomwe muzana emusika wemotokari MCU, asi machipi emotokari anongoverengera 3.31% yemari yayo ye2020.Pakazosvika Q1 2022, TSMC's smartphone uye HPC zvikamu zvichazvidavirira 40% uye 41% yemari mambure zvichiteerana, nepo IOT mota DCE nevamwe vachizozvidavirira 8%, 5%, 3% uye 3% zvakateerana.
Kudiwa kuri kushoma, asi purofiti ichiripo, uye dambudziko ringangove iro musoro mukuru mumusika wesemiconductor.
03 Mushure mekuwedzera, vatengi vakafarira?
Kana mutengo wemachipisi wazunguzwa, vanonyanya kufara ndevatengi, nharembozha, mota uye kunyange midziyo yemumba yave nzvimbo yecarnival inogara inotarisirwa mushure mekunge mutengo wemachipisi wadzikiswa, kunyanya nharembozha.Pasina nguva mushure mekudonha kwemutengo wechip, pakanga paine vanhu vaishevedzera pasocial platforms kutenga nharembozha muhafu yechipiri yegore rino.
Pakarepo, mutengo wesimba idzva wakaderedzwa, mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvemagetsi wakaderedzwa, uye mutengo wemidziyo yemumba wakaderedzwa… Manzwi akadai anouya uye achienda.Nekudaro, hapana chimiro chakajeka chenguva iripo kana kuchave nekudzikiswa kwemutengo kunoenderana neketani yechigadzirwa, asi kutaura chokwadi, iyi wave yekudzikisa mutengo wechip haizokonzeredzi kuderedzwa kukuru kwemutengo mumusika wevatengi.
Kutanga kutarisa kune inonyanya kupesvedzera nharembozha, mumakore achangopfuura, vagadziri venhare mbozha vanogara vachikwidza mitengo, kunyarara kwakadzikama, swagger yepamusoro-soro, mukana wekudzikisa mutengo kwechinguva wakaderera.Uye zvakare, iyo purofiti yakakura yevagadziri vemafoni epamba yanga isati yakwira.Pamusangano weHuawei Developers Conference, Yang Haisong, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri weHuawei's consumer business software Department, akataura kuti purofiti yevagadziri venharembozha vekuChina yakadzikira zvinosiririsa, uye musika wemusika wenharembozha unopfuura hafu, asi purofiti inongosvika gumi. %.
Zvakare, iyo chip yakadzika pasi, asi mutengo wezvimwe zvikamu hauna kupfava, senge sensors uye skrini, mhando dzepamusoro-soro dziri kuwedzera kuve dzakakurumbira, vagadziri venharembozha pane zvinodiwa zveketani zvinowanzoitika zvakanyanya uye zvakanyanya kuomarara. Zvinonzi OPPO, Xiaomi yakambogadziridza yakasarudzika masensa kune Sony uye Samsung.
Nenzira iyi, chikomborero kune vatengi kuti mutengo wemafoni hauwedzere.
Tichitarisa simba idzva, iyo huru chip iyo yakacheka mutengo nguva ino pakutanga yakanga isiri mumunda wekugadzira motokari, tisingatauri, kuwedzera kwemutengo mumhepo itsva yemotokari yemagetsi muhafu yekutanga yegore yakanga isina kunyange, uye iyo chikonzero shure kwayo kwaisava kwese chip dambudziko.Mutengo wezvinhu zvakawanda uri kukwira, ingave nickel, simbi, aluminium kusanganisira yakanaka uye yakaipa electrode, mutengo unongowedzera, mutengo wemabhatiri unoramba wakakwira, uye zvinhu zvakasiyana zviri pachena hazvigone kuverengerwa kune chip chete.
Ehe, iyo mota inogadzira denderedzwa haisi diki chip kudzoka haigone kuoneka, kubvira gore rino, LED mwenje-emitting machipisi uye mutyairi machipisi ane 30% -40% kuderera kwemutengo, izvo pasina mubvunzo zvinotamba imwe buffer basa mutengo unotevera wemuridzi wemotokari.
Pamusoro pemafoni akangwara, kukanganisa kukuru kwevatengi machipisi kungangove midziyo yemumba yakangwara senge maairconditioner nemafiriji, uye kudiwa kweMCUs kwemidziyo mikuru mitatu michena yemumba hakusi kuderera, kubva pa570 miriyoni muna 2017 kusvika kune vanopfuura mazana manomwe. miriyoni muna 2022, ayo air conditioning MCUs anodarika 60%.
Nekudaro, machipi anoshandiswa mumunda wakangwara wemba anonyanya kuderera-ekupedzisira machipisi ane kumashure maitiro, ayo anopokana nedhimoni kune epamberi maitiro akadai se3nm uye 7nm, kazhinji akakwira kupfuura 28nm kana 45nm.Iwe unoziva, aya machipi anoshandiswa zvakanyanya nekuda kweakadzika hunyanzvi zvemukati, uye mutengo weyuniti hauna kukwirira.
Kumakambani emidziyo yemumba, tekinoroji yakaderera inoreva kuti vanogona kutokwanisa kuzviriritira.Muna 2017, Gree's microelectronics division yakatangwa;Muna 2018, Konka akazivisa kugadzwa kwepamutemo kweiyo tekinoroji division yesemiconductors;Muna 2018, Midea yakazivisa kupinda kwayo mukugadzira chip uye yakamisa Meiren Semiconductor Co., Ltd., uye muna Ndira 2021, Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd.
Zvinoenderana nehuwandu husina kukwana, mazhinji echinyakare makambani emidziyo yemumba akadai seTCL, Konka, Skyworth, uye Haier vakaisa iyo semiconductor munda, nemamwe mazwi, iyi ndima haina kumanikidzwa nemachipisi zvachose.
Pasi, kana kuti kwete pasi?Uku kuderedzwa kwemutengo we chip kwakafanana nepfuti yenhema, vagadziri vekumusoro havafarire kwenguva pfupi, ndoda vatengi.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-29-2022