Mugore ra2023 richidzika kutenderera, mazwi akakosha akadai sekuramwa, kucheka maodha, uye kubhuroka kunyorerwa kunofamba nemuindasitiri ine makore chip.
Muna 2024, iyo izere nekufungidzira, ndedzipi shanduko nyowani, maitiro matsva uye mikana mitsva ichave iyo semiconductor indasitiri?
1. Musika uchakura ne20%
Nguva pfupi yadarika, tsvakiridzo yazvino yeInternational Data Corporation (IDC) inoratidza kuti mari yepasi rose semiconductor muna 2023 yakadonha ne12.0% gore-negore, ichisvika pamadhora mazana mashanu nemakumi mashanu neshanu emadhora, asi yakakwira kudarika fungidziro yesangano remadhora mazana mashanu nemakumi mapfumbamwe nepfumbamwe munaGunyana.Inotarisirwa kukura 20.2% gore-pamusoro-gore kusvika $633 bhiriyoni muna 2024, kubva pakufanotaura kwekare kwemadhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi matanhatu nematanhatu.
Zvinoenderana nekufanotaura kweiyo agency, kuoneka kwekukura kwesemiconductor kuchawedzera sekugadziriswa kwenguva refu kweyekugadziriswa muzvikamu zviviri zvakakura zvemusika, PC uye smartphone, inopera, uye mazinga ezvinyorwa mu.motokariuye maindasitiri anotarisirwa kudzoka kumatanho akajairwa muhafu yechipiri ya2024 sezvo magetsi arikuenderera mberi nekufambisa semiconductor zvemukati kukura mumakore gumi anotevera.
Izvo zvakakosha kucherechedza kuti zvikamu zvemusika zvine rebound maitiro kana kukura kwekukura muna 2024 ma smartphones, makomputa ega, maseva, mota, uye AI misika.
1.1 Smart Phone
Mushure meanoda kusvika makore matatu ekuderera, iyo smartphone musika yakazotanga kukwira kubva pachikamu chechitatu che2023.
Zvinoenderana neCounterpoint data rekutsvaga, mushure memwedzi makumi maviri nenomwe yakatevedzana yegore-pa-gore kuderera kwekutengesa kwepasirese smartphone, yekutanga kutengesa vhoriyamu (kureva, zvitoro zvekutengesa) muna Gumiguru 2023 yakawedzera ne5% gore-pa-gore.
Canalys forecasts yegore rakazara smartphone kutumirwa kuchasvika 1.13 bhiriyoni mayunitsi muna 2023, uye inotarisirwa kukura 4% kusvika 1.17 bhiriyoni mayunitsi ne 2024. Musika we smartphone unotarisirwa kusvika 1.25 bhiriyoni mayunitsi akatumirwa ne2027, ine musanganiswa wepagore kukura. 2023-2027) ye2.6%.
Sanyam Chaurasia, muongorori mukuru kuCanalys, akati, "Kudzokororwa kwemafoni muna 2024 kuchafambiswa nemisika iri kusimukira, uko mafoni anoramba ari chikamu chakakosha chekubatana, varaidzo uye kugadzira."Chaurasia anoti imwe mumatatu mafoni akatumirwa muna 2024 achabva mudunhu reAsia-Pacific, kubva pane imwe chete pavashanu muna 2017. Inotungamirwa nekutsvairwa kutsva muIndia, Southeast Asia neSouth Asia, dunhu iri richavawo rimwe rekukura nekukurumidza. pa6 muzana pagore.
Zvakakodzera kutaura kuti ikozvino smart phone indasitiri cheni yakakura kwazvo, kukwikwidza kwemasheya kunotyisa, uye panguva imwe chete, kuvandudza kwesainzi uye tekinoroji, kusimudzira maindasitiri, kudzidziswa kwetarenda uye zvimwe zvinhu zviri kukwevera iyo smart phone indasitiri kuratidza magariro ayo. value.
1.2 Makomputa Yemunhu
Zvinoenderana nekufungidzira kwazvino kweTrendForce Consulting, kutumirwa kwemabhuku epasi rose kuchasvika mamirioni zana nemakumi matanhatu nenomwe muna 2023, zvichidzika ne10.2% gore negore.Nekudaro, sezvo kudzvanyirira kuri kuwedzera, musika wepasi rose unotarisirwa kudzoka kune hutano hwekugovera uye kutenderera kwekuda muna 2024, uye huwandu hwese hwekutakura hwemusika wemabhuku unotarisirwa kusvika mamirioni zana nemakumi manomwe nenomwe muna 2024, kuwedzera kwepagore kwe3. .Iko kukura kukuru kunobva mukutsiviwa kwemusika webhizinesi rekupedzisira, uye nekuwedzera kweChromebooks uye e-mitambo malaptop.
TrendForce yakataurawo mamiriro eAI PC kuvandudzwa mumushumo.Sangano rinotenda kuti nekuda kwekudhura kwekusimudzira software uye hardware ine chokuita neAI PC, kuvandudzwa kwekutanga kuchatarisa kune vashandi vepamusoro-soro uye vanogadzira zvinyorwa.Kubuda kweAI PCS hakuzokonzerese kuwedzera kwekutenga kwePC kudiwa, mazhinji ayo anozogara achichinja kune AI PC zvishandiso pamwe chete nebhizinesi rekutsiva maitiro muna 2024.
Kudivi revatengi, iyo yazvino PC mudziyo inogona kupa gore AI zvikumbiro kusangana nezvinodiwa zvehupenyu hwezuva nezuva, varaidzo, kana pasina AI muurayi application munguva pfupi, isa pamberi pfungwa yekusimudzira AI ruzivo, zvichave zvakaoma kurumidza kuwedzera mukurumbira wevatengi AI PC.Nekudaro, nekufamba kwenguva, mushure mekugona kwekushandisa kwezvimwe zvakasiyana-siyana zveAI zvishandiso zvakagadziridzwa mune ramangwana, uye mutengo wematengo wakadzikiswa, mwero wekupinda wemutengi AI PCS unogona kutarisirwa.
1.3 maseva uye Data Centers
Zvinoenderana nekufungidzira kweTrendforce, maseva eAI (kusanganisira GPU,FPGA, ASIC, etc.) ichatumira anopfuura mamirioni 1.2 miriyoni muna 2023, nekuwedzera kwepagore kwe37.7%, inoverengera 9% yezvese server inotumirwa, uye ichakura kupfuura 38% muna 2024, uye maseva eAI achazvidavirira. kupfuura 12%.
Nezvishandiso zvakaita sechatbots uye generative artificial intelligence, mahombe ekugadzirisa makore akawedzera mari yavo muhungwaru hwekugadzira, vachifambisa kudiwa kwemaseva eAI.
Kubva 2023 kusvika 2024, kudiwa kwemaseva eAI kunonyanya kufambiswa nekudyara kwevashandisi vegore, uye mushure megore ra2024, ichawedzerwa kune mamwe minda yekushandisa uko makambani anodyara muhunyanzvi AI modhi uye software yekuvandudza sevhisi, ichifambisa kukura kwe. edge AI maseva ane yakaderera - uye yepakati-odha Gpus.Zvinotarisirwa kuti avhareji yegore yekukura kweyero AI server kutumira ichave inopfuura makumi maviri muzana kubva 2023 kusvika 2026.
1.4 Motokari itsva dzine simba
Nekuenderera mberi kwekufambira mberi kwemaitiro matsva echimanjemanje, kudiwa kwemachipisi muindasitiri yemotokari kuri kuwedzera.
Kubva padanho resimba rekutonga system kusvika kune advanced driver assistance system (ADAS), driverless tekinoroji uye mota dzevaraidzo masisitimu, pane kuvimba kukuru pamachipisi emagetsi.Zvinoenderana nedata rakapihwa neChina Association of Automobile Manufacturers, huwandu hwemachipisi emota anodiwa kumotokari dzemafuta echinyakare i600-700, huwandu hwemachipisi emota anodiwa pamotokari dzemagetsi huchakwira kusvika pa1600 / mota, uye kudiwa kwemachipisi emagetsi. mota dzakangwara dzepamusoro dzinotarisirwa kuwedzera kusvika 3000 / mota.
Yakakodzera data inoratidza kuti muna 2022, iyo yepasi rose yemotokari chip musika saizi ingangoita 310 bhiriyoni yuan.Mumusika weChinese, uko kutsva kwesimba kwakasimba, kutengeswa kwemotokari yeChina kwakasvika 4.58 trillion yuan, uye musika weChina wemotokari chip wakasvika 121.9 bhiriyoni yuan.Kutengeswa kwemotokari kweChina kunotarisirwa kusvika mamirioni makumi matatu nerimwe muna 2024, kukwira 31% kubva pagore rapfuura, maererano neCAAM.Pakati pavo, kutengeswa kwemotokari dzevatakuri kwaiva anenge mamiriyoni 26.8, kuwedzera kwe3,1 muzana.Kutengeswa kwemotokari itsva dzemagetsi kuchasvika anenge mamiriyoni 11.5, kuwedzera kwe20% gore negore.
Pamusoro pezvo, hungwaru hwekupinza mwero wemota nyowani dzesimba iri kuwedzerawo.Mune iyo chigadzirwa pfungwa ye2024, kugona kwehungwaru kuchave kutungamira kwakakosha kunosimbiswa nezvakawanda zvigadzirwa zvitsva.
Izvi zvinoreva zvakare kuti kudiwa kwemachipisi mumusika wemotokari gore rinouya kuchiri kukuru.
2. Industrial tekinoroji maitiro
2.1AI Chip
AI yanga iripo muna 2023, uye icharamba iri izwi rakakosha muna 2024.
Musika wemachipisi anoshandiswa kuita artificial intelligence (AI) mitoro yebasa iri kukura pamwero unodarika makumi maviri muzana pagore.Iyo AI chip musika saizi ichasvika pamadhora mazana mashanu nemakumi mashanu neshanu emadhora muna 2023, kuwedzera kwe20.9% pamusoro pe2022, uye ichakura 25.6% muna 2024 kusvika $67.1 bhiriyoni.Pakazosvika 2027, AI chip mari inotarisirwa kuwedzera kaviri saizi yemusika we2023, inosvika $119.4 bhiriyoni.
VaGartner vanoongorora vanonongedza kuti remangwana ruzhinji kutumirwa kwetsika AI machipisi kuchatsiva yazvino inotonga chip architecture (discrete Gpus) kugarisa akasiyana-siyana eAI-based workloads, kunyanya ayo akavakirwa pakugadzira AI tekinoroji.
2.2 2.5/3D Advanced Packaging musika
Mumakore achangopfuura, neshanduko yekugadzira chip, kufambira mberi kwe "Moore's Law" kwakadzikira, zvichikonzera kukwira kwakanyanya kwemutengo wepamucheto wekukura kwechip performance.Nepo Mutemo waMoore wakadzikira, kudiwa kwekombuta kwakawedzera.Nekukurumidza kusimudzira minda iri kusimukira senge cloud computing, data hombe, hungwaru hwekugadzira, uye kutyaira uchizvimirira, zvinodikanwa zvemakomputa emagetsi machipisi zviri kuwedzera nekukwira.
Pasi pematambudziko akawanda uye maitiro, iyo semiconductor indasitiri yatanga kuongorora nzira nyowani yekuvandudza.Pakati pavo, kurongedza kwepamberi kwave nzira yakakosha, iyo inoita basa rakakosha mukuvandudza chip kubatanidzwa, kuderedza chip kure, kukurumidza kubatanidza magetsi pakati pemachipisi, uye optimize mashandiro.
2.5D pachayo chiyero chisipo munyika ine chinangwa, nekuti denderedzwa rayo rakasanganiswa rinopfuura 2D, asi haigone kusvika kune yakabatanidzwa density ye3D, saka inonzi 2.5D.Mumunda wekurongedza kwepamberi, 2.5D inoreva kubatanidzwa kweyepakati layer, iyo parizvino inonyanya kugadzirwa nesilicon zvinhu, ichitora mukana wekukura kwayo uye yakakwirira-density yekubatanidza maitiro.
3D packaging tekinoroji uye 2.5D yakasiyana neiyo yepamusoro-density yekubatanidza kuburikidza nepakati layer, 3D inoreva kuti hapana yepakati layer inodiwa, uye chip yakabatana zvakananga kuburikidza neTSV (kuburikidza nesilicon tekinoroji).
International Data Corporation IDC inofanotaura kuti 2.5/3D musika wekurongedza unotarisirwa kusvika pakukura kwepagore kukura (CAGR) ye22% kubva 2023 kusvika 2028, inova inzvimbo yekunetsekana kukuru mumusika wesemiconductor packaging test musika mune ramangwana.
2.3 HBM
H100 chip, H100 nude inogara pachinzvimbo chepakati, kune matatu matatu eHBM padivi rega rega, uye matanhatu HBM yekuwedzera nzvimbo yakaenzana neH100 mushwi.Aya matanhatu akajairwa ndangariro machipisi ndechimwe che "vakonzeri" chekushomeka kweH100 yekupihwa.
HBM inotora chikamu chebasa rekurangarira muGPU.Kusiyana neyechinyakare DDR ndangariro, HBM inonyanya kurongedza yakawanda DRAM ndangariro munzira yakatwasuka, iyo isingango wedzera ndangariro, asi zvakare inodzora ndangariro simba rekushandisa uye chip nzvimbo zvakanaka, ichidzikisa nzvimbo inogarwa mukati mepakeji.Pamusoro pezvo, HBM inowana yakakwira bandwidth pahwaro hwechinyakare DDR ndangariro nekuwedzera zvakanyanya huwandu hwepini kusvika kune memori bhazi re1024 bits yakafara paHBM stack.
Kudzidziswa kweAI kune zvakakwirira zvinodiwa pakutsvaga data throughput uye data transmission latency, saka HBM iri kudiwa zvikuru.
Muna 2020, mhinduro dzekupedzisira-bandwidth inomiririrwa nepamusoro-bandwidth ndangariro (HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3) yakatanga kubuda zvishoma nezvishoma.Mushure mekupinda muna 2023, kuwedzera kwekupenga kwemusika wekugadzira wenjere unomiririrwa neChatGPT kwakawedzera kudiwa kwemaseva eAI nekukurumidza, asi zvakare kwakakonzera kuwedzera kwekutengesa kwezvigadzirwa zvepamusoro-soro senge HBM3.
Tsvagiridzo yeOmdia inoratidza kuti kubva 2023 kusvika 2027, kukura kwepagore kwemari yemusika weHBM inotarisirwa kukwira ne52%, uye chikamu chayo chemari yemusika weDRAM inotarisirwa kuwedzera kubva pagumi muzana muna 2023 kusvika panosvika makumi maviri muzana muna 2027. mutengo weHBM3 ungangoita kashanu kusvika katanhatu iyo yeyakajairwa DRAM machipisi.
2.4 Kukurukurirana kweSatellite
Kune vashandisiwo zvavo, basa iri rine sarudzo, asi kune vanhu vanoda mitambo yakanyanyisa, kana kushanda munzvimbo dzakaomarara senge renje, tekinoroji iyi ichave inoshanda, uye kunyange "inoponesa hupenyu".Satellite kutaurirana yave kuita inotevera nhandare yehondo yakanangwa nevagadziri venharembozha.
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-02-2024